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The rise of the regional market and the commercial sector outside London

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The rise of the regional market and the commercial sector outside London

Post-financial meltdown, London has been the only city in the UK which has seemed (somewhat) impervious to the property downturn that had taken place across the rest of the country.

Both commercial and residential sites in London saw prices remain at relatively decent levels while the rest of the country floundered, but this is starting to change, with regional markets in commercial property starting to see something of a recovery.

Commercial property as a whole

The commercial sector as a whole is expected to see a real return to health in 2014, with demand, prices and investment likely to increase throughout the country for most of 2013.

Ignis Asset Management said there will be a real recovery in returns for commercial property throughout the year, as they rebound to reach their highest level in seven years, finishing on 11.5 per cent.

In addition to this, confidence means more companies will be putting a greater amount of money into commercial property. Lloyds Bank reports that 76 per cent of small and mid-market firms expect to see an increase in commercial property activity in 2014.

However, it is regional sites that are expected to perform best. With companies seeing less of a need to be London-centric than they have in years gone by thanks to the rise of the internet and related technology, they are increasingly seeking out better prices further afield.

2014: The year of regional commercial property

One of the drivers of the commercial property market on a regional level is the fact there is simply more money available. An improving economy and an ever-rising business confidence means mortgage lenders see loans as lower risk than they have been in recent years.

Emma Huepfl, head of capital management at London-based Laxfield, said lenders are now seeing mortgage demand spreading away from the "safe havens" that previously dominated the market, such as London and the south-east.

"We also see new lending opportunities in the regions and an overall improved confidence in the availability of real estate finance," she added in her company's report.

Lloyds Bank backs up this sentiment, saying that its latest confidence survey discovered that the place where people feel most confident about the market is actually Scotland.

Scottish businesses and asset managers lead the way for the UK as a whole, with 90 per cent expecting to see growth in activity within the next six months - this has spearheaded the most confident period since the bank started tracking in 2010.

It shows a quite phenomenal return for the Scottish property market. At this time last year, the same survey showed that only nine per cent expected to see any sort of upturn within the next six months.

Scotland is not the only market expecting to see good levels of recovery throughout the next half year, though.

In the confidence stakes, it was followed by the likes of the south-west with 86 per cent predicting increased activity, the north-west at 77 per cent and the Midlands with some 75 per cent saying the same.

John Feeney, global head of corporate real estate at Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said: "The huge upswing in confidence among fund managers in the past year is perhaps the most significant bellwether yet of the market’s recovery and, with a majority of this cohort and large businesses looking to invest more, the momentum is continuing to gather pace."

There are still risk factors that exist in regional markets, however, and these will need to be addressed if the potential of the sector is to be realised over the next few months.

Alan Patterson, chairman of the IPF research steering group and global head of research and strategy at AXA Real Estate, said: "Strong capital inflows and new fund launches, together with a willingness of investors to accept higher risks, will drive managers to look to good regional stock in order to provide better returns, and certainly higher yields, than might be obtainable from prime and core central London and south east property."


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