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Does the state of the residential market affect commercial property?

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Does the state of the residential market affect commercial property?

It's no secret that the housing market across the UK has been improving rapidly over the course of the past 12 months - but is this having a knock-on effect on the rest of the sector?

In the past year, the Land Registry reported this week (November 27th), house valuations have gone up by 6.5 per cent. And although prices still remain six per cent below peaks seen in 2007, they are certainly on the way to recovery.

Government incentives such as Help to Buy and the Funding for Lending Scheme have had a fantastic effect on property, mobilising buyers who previously had no hope of getting onto the housing ladder.

And with experts polled by Reuters expecting price rises of 5.7 per cent next year to show a continuing return to health in the residential property market, is it the case that it takes the commercial sector with it?

Commercial to follow residential

Earlier this week, the government announced that the Funding for Lending Scheme, which has been used to incentivise banks to approve mortgages for thousands of Brits, would be changing tact.

The end of mortgage subsidies, the Council of Mortgage Lenders said (November 28th) shows that the property market is now able to stand on its own two feet.

And with this being the case, it could be the case that more money is coming the way of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the coming year - something the government is keen to promote.

From the start of 2014, the subsidies will be offered instead to those lenders offering loans to business - and this could spark a new trend - a rise in office uptake.

An increase in funding may well mean that companies can seek out larger, better Grade A office stock, helping to push the prime office market on the back of the strength in the residential sector.

Demand

The evidence that commercial and residential property success goes hand in hand has already been proven in the past few years.

As the residential market continues to recover, it has been reported by a number of different sources that commercial property - both shops and offices in particular - are now following suit.

Demand for property in the residential market has been creeping upwards, and the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) reported last month that there are now so many new buyer enquiries that they outnumber the volume of homes coming to market by almost five to one.

This rise in demand is something that has been mirrored in the commercial market, with shops performing particularly well.

Rics said that while demand is still historically very low, the fact that 27 per cent of chartered surveyors have reported an increase in this factor is very positive for the market.

Similarly, IPD data shows that the rent brought in by offices is being pushed ever higher as more and more companies look to get themselves onto the ladder.

It is a reality that has seen a 0.1 per cent rise in the third quarter of this year - something that never would have seemed possible in the doldrums of recent years.

Personal finance

It could also be the case that as people feel financially more stable and able to buy, it helps drive business.

For example, the British Bankers' Association said that October 2013 had seen mortgage deposits rising by 4.5 per cent, meaning that Brits are becoming more comfortable with their own finances.

This is something that has been reflected in the retail sector, where income has been increasing at a rate higher than expected. The Office for National Statistics reported that retail sales climbed 0.6 per cent in September to hit a five-year high.

The two figures show that as people feel more financially secure, they spend more – a key factor in the recovery of the high street property market moving forward.

Geographical issues

One of the biggest parallels that can be seen in the two markets at the moment is the way property recovery is spreading away from the only area of the UK that was previously doing well - the capital.

London had been impervious to the financial issues that had seen the rest of the market struck down, but while this is still the case, other areas are starting to see a recovery that is slowly improving their prospects.

In recent months, Wales, the north-east and the south-west in particular have bounced back considerably in the housing market, and the commercial sector has responded in kind.

Outside of London, demand has risen to an extent that has seen a return of 2.4 per cent in the commercial sector according to IPD, a figure far more healthy than seen in recent years.

The trend here is simple, of course - business goes where there are people. For shop owners, it makes sense to move to somewhere with lower rates if they will be exposed to a high number of consumers.

Meanwhile, for companies that are not geographically dependent and free to move around the country, having the chance to move to cities where there's a greater spread of workers will help them expand in an age where the economy is only expected to improve.


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