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Property market 'to return to double-digit growth by 2015'

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Property market 'to return to double-digit growth by 2015'

There is a promising outlook for the British property market over the course of the next few years as confidence continues to build.

The latest estimates from international real estate adviser, BNP Paribas Real Estate, suggest the property market will move into double-digit growth by 2015.

During its inaugural Capitalise event for investors, it was revealed that average annual return is expected to be a little over eight per cent over the next five years.

The main reason why this will not be any higher is due to a sluggish start to 2013 and a tail off in activity in 2017.

According to Claire Higgins, head of research at BNP Real Estate Parisbas, investment will rise across the regions as an increasing number of sovereign wealth funds partner with local investors.

She said: "As the underlying economy and accompanying sentiment improves, so will returns.

"By 2015, when the economy achieves above trend growth, commercial property total returns will rise to above ten per cent. Retail warehouses and shopping centres will be key drivers in that year."

As the forecasts suggest, top quality retail is set to pave the way for growth, slightly ahead of central London office space.

While the high street retail market is set to peak at eight per cent in 2016, distribution centres are expected to outpace standard industrials and see strong returns over the medium term.

"The industrial sector will also see a steady performance throughout the next five years, producing double-digit returns in 2015 but in large part due to high income returns," said Ms Higgins.

In central London, the West End is expected to outperform the City slightly, while high income returns will help restore regional offices to a "reasonable performance".

Head of investment at BNP Paribas Real Estate Paul Abrey said the group expects the search for long income to continue this year as London offices remain appealing to overseas investors, but they will no longer be the only focus.

He added: "We see continued global investment into residential as a key factor of 2013, while investors will also favour prime retail opportunities and investment product within the M25, well let to strong covenants." 


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